Diagnosis of Conditional Maximum Tornado Damage Probabilities

Considerable effort in recent decades has focused on near-storm environment interrogation via model-based planar fields (e.g., Stensrud et al. 1997) and model-based proximity soundings in order to discriminate between nontornadic and significant (> F2) tornado environments for supercells (e.g., Thompson et al. 2003, hereafter T03; Thompson et al. 2007). This emphasis in severe environment discrimination led to the development of supercell ingredients-based composite parameters (i.e., significant tornado parameter, T03). Convective mode is an additional component widely recognized as a contributor to the occurrence and non-occurrence of severe weather. Recent work by Smith et al. (2012; hereafter S12) demonstrated the relationship of convective mode to tornado damage intensity, and Thompson et al. (2012; hereafter T12) took a step further and preliminarily investigated the relationship between convective mode, the near-storm environment, and tornado damage intensity.